The real concern is not just price but availability
Thousands of kilometres from the nearest bathroom cabinet, geopolitical instability in the Middle East is quietly reshaping the daily rituals of Australian consumers. Because modern cosmetics are built on a foundation of petroleum derivatives — mineral oils, silicones, glycols — disruptions to crude oil supply translate, almost inevitably, into higher prices and emptier shelves. The $12 billion Australian beauty market is discovering, as so many industries have before it, that the line between global conflict and personal routine is shorter than it appears.
- Crude oil supply disruptions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves through the cosmetics supply chain, hitting raw material costs before a single product reaches a shelf.
- Freight surcharges are already being introduced across Australia, and lead times are stretching — the squeeze is not coming, it has arrived.
- A perfect storm of higher production costs, bottlenecked supply chains, and the looming threat of product shortages is forcing cosmetics companies to pass pain directly to consumers.
- New product launches are stalling, market entrants are retreating, and established brands are pulling back expansion plans as cost uncertainty makes forward planning nearly impossible.
- The average Australian's $454 annual cosmetics spend is expected to rise — but for less variety and potentially fewer products on shelves.
The average Australian spends around $454 a year on cosmetics — lipsticks, moisturisers, foundations, the small accumulations of daily life. That figure is set to rise, and the cause lies thousands of kilometres away in the Middle East, where crude oil supply has grown uncertain.
The link between geopolitics and a skincare routine becomes clear once you understand what cosmetics are made of. Petroleum jelly, mineral oil, silicones, glycols — these are the unglamorous backbone of the beauty industry. Cheap, stable, and ubiquitous, they underpin a market worth more than $12 billion annually in Australia alone. When crude oil supply tightens, everything built on top of it feels the pressure.
Sebastien Jagut, who oversees procurement at cosmetics manufacturer New Directions Australia, describes a chain reaction already in motion. Raw materials are becoming more expensive and harder to source. Freight surcharges are being introduced by distributors. Lead times are stretching. The concern, he warns, is not only price — it is availability.
Amina Kitching, founder of LOAEL global beauty group, calls it a perfect storm: rising production costs, supply chain bottlenecks, and the real possibility of finished-goods shortages arriving simultaneously. Cosmetics companies are already beginning to pass these costs on. Kitching sees one potential upside — the crisis could accelerate a shift toward sustainable alternatives and away from the disposable culture that has long defined beauty packaging — though whether that transition can offset immediate consumer pain remains uncertain.
The warning signs are already visible. New launches are being delayed. Emerging brands are hesitating to enter the market. Established players are growing cautious. Australians should expect not only higher prices but reduced variety and periodic shortages — paying more, in other words, for less.
The average Australian spends about $454 a year on cosmetics—lipsticks, moisturisers, foundations, the small luxuries that accumulate in bathroom cabinets. That number is about to climb, and the reason sits thousands of kilometres away in the Middle East, where crude oil supply has become uncertain.
The connection between geopolitics and your skincare routine is not obvious until you understand what cosmetics actually are. Crude oil, after it's extracted and refined, becomes the building blocks of beauty products. Petroleum jelly, mineral oil, silicones, glycols, polyvinyl alcohol—these are not exotic ingredients. They are cheap, stable, and create the glossy texture consumers expect. Vaseline, for instance, is 100 per cent purified petroleum jelly. The Australian beauty and personal care market is worth more than $12 billion annually, and nearly all of it depends on a steady, affordable supply of these petroleum derivatives.
When that supply tightens, everything downstream feels the pressure. Sebastien Jagut, who manages procurement and business development at New Directions Australia, a cosmetics manufacturer and wholesaler, explains that the process of turning crude oil into usable cosmetic ingredients is complex and multi-layered. Raw materials must be refined, then chemically processed further, then incorporated into finished products. Disruptions at any point in that chain ripple forward. Right now, fuel shortages and rising energy costs are already making those raw materials more expensive and harder to source. On top of that, freight surcharges are being introduced by distributors across Australia, reflecting the increased cost of moving goods into the country. The real concern, Jagut warns, is not just price but availability—delays are mounting, lead times are stretching, and reduced availability is becoming the norm.
Amina Kitching, founder of LOAEL global beauty group and an advocate for organic beauty standards, calls it a perfect storm. Higher production costs, supply chain bottlenecks, and the real possibility of shortages in finished goods are converging at once. Cosmetics companies are already passing these costs to consumers. Price hikes for both raw ingredients and packaged goods are expected soon. Kitching sees a potential silver lining: the crisis might push the industry toward sustainable alternatives and away from the throwaway culture that has defined cosmetics packaging for decades. Whether that shift happens fast enough to offset the immediate pain is unclear.
Historically, the personal care sector is among the first to feel the impact during inflationary periods, Jagut notes. This creates a double squeeze—rising production costs at the same time demand may soften as consumers pull back spending. Early warning signs are already visible. New product launches are being delayed. New market entrants are hesitating to enter the market. Established brands are becoming more cautious in their planning, unwilling to commit to expansion when cost uncertainty is this high. Beyond higher prices, Australians should expect shortages of certain items and reduced variety on shelves. The $454 average spend per person per year is likely to rise, but what consumers get for that money may be less than before.
Citas Notables
Beyond pricing, the real concern is supply continuity—delays, reduced availability, and longer lead times are becoming increasingly likely.— Sebastien Jagut, procurement and business development manager, New Directions Australia
The petroleum shortage is creating a perfect storm for Australia's cosmetics industry, leading to significantly higher production costs, supply chain bottlenecks, and a potential shortage of finished goods.— Amina Kitching, founder of LOAEL global beauty group
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does crude oil matter so much to lipstick? It seems like such a small thing.
Because lipstick, and almost every other cosmetic, is made from petroleum derivatives. Mineral oil, silicones, petroleum jelly—these are the base materials that make products stable and glossy. Without cheap, reliable access to them, the whole industry breaks.
So if the Middle East stabilises tomorrow, prices come back down?
Not immediately. The raw materials are already more expensive, and that cost has already flowed into the supply chain. It takes months for those prices to normalise, even if the geopolitical situation improves.
What happens to consumers in the meantime?
They pay more for the same products, or they find fewer options on the shelf. Some brands are delaying new launches because they can't predict their costs. Smaller companies might not survive the squeeze at all.
Is there an alternative? Could companies just use different ingredients?
Some are exploring sustainable alternatives, but that's not a quick fix. Petroleum derivatives are cheap and proven. Switching to organic or plant-based ingredients requires reformulation, testing, and often higher costs. It's a longer-term shift, not something that solves the immediate crisis.
So this is really about supply chain fragility?
Exactly. The beauty industry, like so many others, is built on the assumption that crude oil will be cheap and available. When that assumption breaks, everything else breaks with it.