Friends to all, enemies to none—and Australia can't change that
In the shadow of a devastating earthquake and the long reach of great-power competition, Australia and Vanuatu are negotiating a ten-year, $500 million partnership that asks both nations to weigh sovereignty against security, and generosity against self-interest. The Nakamal Agreement, expected to be signed in September, would channel funds into data infrastructure, climate resilience, and economic recovery — yet its most consequential questions, around who may travel freely and who may hold strategic veto, remain unresolved. At its heart, this is a story about what partnership truly means between a large, anxious power and a small, proud nation that has learned to bargain carefully with the world.
- Australia is racing to deepen its Pacific presence as China courts the region, making Vanuatu's signature on the Nakamal pact a matter of strategic urgency for Canberra.
- Vanuatu's Prime Minister has drawn a firm line: no visa-free travel concessions, no deal — a demand that collides directly with Australia's longstanding resistance to relaxing Pacific entry rules.
- A ghost haunts the negotiations — a 2022 security agreement signed and then repudiated by Vanuatu's own cabinet, a reminder that deals made at the top can collapse from within.
- Vanuatu's constitutional commitment to non-alignment means Australia is unlikely to win the security veto rights it secured from Tuvalu and Nauru, potentially hollowing out the pact's strategic value.
- Three senior Australian ministers are flying to the island of Tanna this week to close the remaining gaps, with a formal signing ceremony targeted for September — optimistic, but not yet certain.
Australia and Vanuatu are on the verge of a sweeping decade-long partnership worth roughly half a billion dollars, known as the Nakamal pact. With a formal signing targeted for September, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Defence Minister Richard Marles, and Pacific Minister Pat Conroy are travelling to the island of Tanna to meet Prime Minister Jotham Napat and push negotiations toward conclusion. The timing is shaped by urgency on both sides: Australia is anxious about Chinese influence in the Pacific, while Vanuatu is still rebuilding from a devastating earthquake that struck in December 2024.
The financial commitments are detailed and substantial. Around $120 million would fund two large data centres in Port Vila and Santo, $100 million is earmarked for security assistance, and more than $110 million would support climate change adaptation — a pressing need for a nation acutely exposed to natural disasters. Smaller allocations cover labour mobility, cultural exchange, and digital infrastructure, averaging $50 million a year across the decade.
Yet the agreement's most sensitive questions remain open. Napat has insisted that Vanuatu citizens receive visa-free entry to Australia as a condition of signing, framing the pact as needing to be a genuine win for both nations. Australia has long resisted such concessions, wary of overstays and complicated further by Vanuatu's citizenship-by-investment scheme, which Australian officials regard as a security vulnerability.
The security architecture of the deal is equally unresolved. Vanuatu's tradition of non-alignment — friends to all, enemies to none — makes it unlikely to grant Australia the kind of strategic veto rights that Tuvalu and Nauru accepted in recent years. A cautionary precedent looms: a 2022 security agreement that designated Australia as Vanuatu's principal security partner was signed by a prime minister whose cabinet then revolted, accusing him of bypassing oversight. It was never ratified. The Nakamal pact is expected to supersede that failed agreement, though Canberra appears unlikely to gain the leverage it might have hoped for.
For Australia, the pact is a significant bet on regional stability and influence. For Vanuatu, it is a lifeline — and a negotiation it has approached with considerable resolve. Whether the remaining gaps on travel and security can be bridged before September will determine whether this ambitious partnership moves from aspiration to reality.
Australia and Vanuatu are on the verge of signing a sweeping strategic partnership that would funnel roughly half a billion dollars into the Pacific island nation over the next decade. The agreement, known as the Nakamal pact, is expected to receive initial approval from Vanuatu's Council of Ministers this week, with both countries aiming to formally sign it in September. The timing is deliberate: Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Defence Minister Richard Marles, and Pacific Minister Pat Conroy are traveling to the island of Tanna tomorrow to meet with Vanuatu's Prime Minister Jotham Napat and other senior officials to finalize the details.
The pact represents an ambitious attempt by Canberra to deepen its foothold in a strategically important corner of the Pacific, particularly as China continues to court the region aggressively. The agreement will address infrastructure development, economic growth, and climate resilience—issues that have become urgent for Vanuatu following the devastating earthquake that struck on December 17, 2024. According to Napat's office, the partnership reflects Australia's commitment to supporting Vanuatu's recovery while strengthening bilateral ties. One Australian government source acknowledged that Vanuatu had "driven quite a hard bargain," but framed the outcome as beneficial to both nations.
The financial commitments are substantial and specific. Australia will contribute approximately $120 million toward Vanuatu's plan to construct two large data centres, one in Port Vila and another in Santo. An additional $100 million is earmarked for security assistance, with $55 million designated as budget support. Climate change adaptation will receive more than $110 million, reflecting the island's vulnerability to natural disasters. Smaller allocations will support labour mobility programs, cultural exchanges, and digital infrastructure improvements. In total, the commitment averages $50 million annually across the decade.
Yet significant details remain unresolved, and they touch on politically sensitive terrain. The most contentious issue is travel and visa access. Last month, Napat declared he would not sign the agreement unless Australia granted Vanuatu citizens visa-free entry, insisting the pact must be a genuine "win-win" for both countries. Australia has historically resisted relaxing travel restrictions for Pacific nationals, citing concerns that large numbers would overstay and remain in the country illegally. The political sensitivity is real: any loosening of visa rules could provoke domestic backlash. Adding to the complexity is Vanuatu's controversial citizenship-by-investment scheme, sometimes called the Golden Passport program, which Australian officials have flagged as a potential security risk because it has attracted oligarchs and individuals fleeing foreign law enforcement.
The security dimensions of the agreement are equally murky. Vanuatu has long maintained a principled stance of non-alignment—what its leaders describe as being "friends to all, enemies to none." This stance makes it highly unlikely that Vanuatu will grant Australia the kind of security veto rights that Tuvalu and Nauru agreed to in 2023 and 2024 respectively, where those nations effectively ceded the ability to consult Australia before signing security agreements with third parties. A previous attempt to lock in such arrangements failed spectacularly. In late 2022, then-Prime Minister Ishmael Kalsakau signed a security agreement with Wong that designated Australia as Vanuatu's "principal security partner," but his own cabinet rebelled, accusing him of bypassing ministerial and parliamentary oversight. The agreement was never ratified by either country. Napat's office has signaled that the Nakamal pact will supersede that failed 2022 agreement, though the new arrangement appears unlikely to grant Canberra the strategic leverage it might prefer.
A spokesperson for Wong's office said discussions were "progressing" but acknowledged "there is still work to do on both sides." The language suggests genuine negotiation rather than a done deal, despite the optimistic timeline. The visit to Tanna tomorrow will be crucial: if both sides can reach consensus, the agreement could receive preliminary approval, clearing the way for a formal signing ceremony next month. For Australia, the stakes are high—the pact represents a significant investment in regional stability and a counterweight to Chinese influence. For Vanuatu, the funds offer a lifeline as the nation rebuilds from earthquake damage and grapples with the existential threat of climate change. Whether the two countries can bridge the remaining gaps on travel access and security arrangements will determine whether this ambitious partnership actually materializes.
Citas Notables
The pact must be a 'win-win' for both countries, with visa-free travel as a condition for signing.— Vanuatu PM Jotham Napat (last month)
Vanuatu had driven 'quite a hard bargain,' but the pact would boost Vanuatu's development while buttressing Australia's strategic position.— Australian government source
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why is Australia willing to spend half a billion dollars on Vanuatu right now?
China is actively courting Pacific nations, and Australia sees this agreement as a way to strengthen its strategic position in the region. The earthquake last year also created an opening—Vanuatu needs help, and Australia can provide it while deepening ties.
But Vanuatu's Prime Minister demanded visa-free travel. Did Australia cave?
That's the mystery. The details are still secret. Australia has always resisted relaxing visa rules for Pacific nationals because of fears about illegal overstaying, so it's unclear whether Napat got what he wanted or found another way to claim victory.
What about the security side? Is Australia getting what it wants there?
Almost certainly not. Vanuatu is fiercely committed to non-alignment. Unlike Tuvalu and Nauru, which gave Australia veto power over their security agreements with other nations, Vanuatu won't do that. A previous attempt in 2022 failed when Vanuatu's own cabinet rebelled.
So Australia is spending $500 million and not getting the security guarantees it probably wants?
It appears that way. But the calculus might be different—keeping Vanuatu in Australia's orbit and preventing it from drifting toward China might be worth the price, even without formal security commitments.
What happens if they don't reach agreement this week?
The timeline slips. Both countries are aiming for a September signing, but if the visa and security issues can't be resolved, the whole thing could stall or be renegotiated.