Congress had held power for fifteen years before losing in 2016
On a Sunday in early May 2021, the people of Assam — a state of thirty-one million at the threshold of India's northeastern frontier — delivered their judgment on five years of BJP governance and fifteen years of Congress memory. The counting of ballots, cast across three phases of voting, would answer whether democratic momentum belongs to those who hold power or those who seek to reclaim it. In the larger story of Indian democracy, Assam has always been more than a single state; it is a hinge upon which the political fate of an entire region turns.
- The BJP, riding a wave of national popularity and holding 86 of 126 seats from its 2016 landslide, entered counting day as the clear favorite according to exit polls.
- Congress, shut out of power since an unexpected 2016 defeat after fifteen unbroken years in office, had staked its northeastern revival on a unified alliance called Mahajot.
- The three-phase voting structure created weeks of rolling tension — later voters cast ballots already aware of how earlier phases had trended, forcing campaigns to adapt in real time.
- Congress leaders publicly dismissed exit polls as unreliable, insisting their ground-level unity would produce a result the surveys could not see.
- Beyond the chief minister's chair, the outcome would signal whether BJP's expansion into India's eastern flank would deepen or whether Congress could reopen a door it had lost five years prior.
Assam's 126-seat assembly was ready to deliver its verdict on Sunday, May 2nd, 2021, after three rounds of voting that had stretched from late March through early April. The contest had a clean shape: the BJP, which had governed for five years, wanted another term; Congress, which had ruled for fifteen years before losing in 2016, wanted back.
The BJP's case rested on a strong foundation. Its 2016 victory had been commanding — 86 of 126 seats — and the party was banking on Prime Minister Modi's national appeal to carry it through again. Exit polls reinforced that confidence, suggesting the ruling party would hold or improve its position under Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal.
The Congress-led Mahajot alliance pushed back. Party leaders dismissed the surveys and insisted that their united campaign had built something the polls could not measure. For Congress, the election was an attempted resurrection — a chance to reclaim a state it had once considered its own for a generation and a half.
What made the result matter beyond Assam's borders was geography and symbolism. As the gateway to India's seven-state northeastern region, Assam's political direction carries weight far beyond its own boundaries. Both sides had made their arguments. The counting would now determine whether the BJP's eastern expansion continued — or whether Congress found its way back.
Assam's 126-member assembly was about to render its verdict. The results would be announced on Sunday, May 2nd, 2021, after three rounds of voting that stretched across more than a week in late March and early April. The contest had been straightforward in its framing: the Bharatiya Janata Party, which had governed the state for the past five years, wanted another term. The Congress, which had held power for fifteen years before losing in 2016, wanted back in.
The voting itself had unfolded in three phases between March 27 and April 6. This staggered approach was standard for large-scale Indian elections, spreading the logistical burden and security requirements across weeks rather than days. For Assam, it meant three separate cycles of campaigning, voting, and the peculiar tension of waiting—voters in later phases knowing roughly how earlier phases had trended, campaigns adjusting messaging in real time.
The BJP's position was straightforward. In 2016, the party had won 86 of the 126 seats available, a commanding majority that had allowed it to form government under Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. The party was banking on what it called the Modi wave—the electoral momentum generated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's national popularity. Exit polls, those surveys conducted as voters left polling stations, suggested the BJP would hold its ground or possibly improve its position.
The Congress-led alliance, branded as Mahajot, was the challenger. Congress had been the dominant force in Assam politics for a generation and a half, holding the chief minister's office continuously from 2001 until their defeat in 2016. That loss had been sharp and unexpected in some quarters. Now, five years later, the party was attempting a resurrection. Congress leadership dismissed the exit polls as unreliable, insisting instead that their alliance had "fought a good election unitedly" and that the actual votes would tell a different story than the surveys suggested.
What hung in the balance was not merely which party would occupy the chief minister's office, though that was significant. Assam held strategic importance in Indian politics—it was the gateway to the Northeast, a region of seven states with distinct cultures, languages, and political traditions. Control of Assam meant influence over the entire region's political direction. The state's 31 million people would determine whether the BJP's expansion into India's eastern flank would continue or whether Congress could reclaim lost ground.
The exit polls had spoken, but they were not prophecy. Indian elections had surprised analysts before. The Congress was betting that ground-level organization, alliance unity, and voter sentiment would diverge from what the surveys indicated. The BJP was confident in its machinery and its leader's appeal. Both sides had made their case to the voters. Now came the counting.
Notable Quotes
Congress said it 'fought a good election unitedly' and would wait for 'the final verdict of the people'— Congress party statement
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did the voting need to happen in three separate phases rather than all at once?
Logistics and security. A state the size of Assam, with over 30 million people, can't vote on a single day without overwhelming the system. Three phases spread the burden—fewer polling stations needed per day, easier to deploy security forces, less chaos at each location.
The exit polls favored the BJP. So why was Congress confident they'd win?
Exit polls are educated guesses, not certainties. Congress was saying the actual voters on the ground felt differently than the surveys suggested. It's a gamble, but it's also the only thing a trailing candidate can say. You can't concede before the count.
What made 2016 such a shock for Congress?
They'd held power for fifteen years straight. That's a long time to be in office—long enough for fatigue to set in, for mistakes to accumulate, for voters to want change. The BJP came in as the alternative, and it worked. Now Congress was trying to prove they'd learned something.
Why does Assam matter so much nationally?
It's the gateway to seven northeastern states. Whoever controls Assam shapes the region's politics. The BJP was trying to expand eastward; Congress was trying to hold a foothold. It wasn't just about one state—it was about which party would dominate an entire region.
If the exit polls were right, what would that mean for the Congress?
Another five years in opposition. Another chance to rebuild, but from the outside. The party would have to figure out what went wrong and whether their alliance strategy actually worked or just delayed the inevitable.