In the contested waters of the South China Sea, ten nations and a rising power are racing toward a diplomatic deadline that may matter less than what they put inside it. ASEAN and China are pressing to finalize a Code of Conduct by year's end, yet the foundational questions—binding force, geographic scope, the rule of international law—remain unresolved beneath a surface of optimistic statements. History offers a cautionary lesson: the 2002 Declaration was signed while islands were being built and militarized, and a paper agreement without substance can serve to legitimize the very realities i