In Manila last week, the foreign ministers of ASEAN gathered beneath the long shadow of a Middle East already at war, searching for the wisdom to ensure Southeast Asia does not follow the same path. The South China Sea — like the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage upon which the world's commerce depends — sits at the center of competing claims that no treaty has yet resolved and no power has yet abandoned. The ministers spoke carefully, as diplomats must, but the unspoken question threading through every session was whether the region's careful balancing act can hold as great powers press hard