The only way Russia can impact Armenia now is economic
On June 7, Armenians face a vote that is less about a single election and more about the direction of a small nation caught between two gravitational forces — the familiar weight of Moscow and the distant promise of Brussels. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, whose approval has fallen sharply since a painful peace with Azerbaijan cost his country Nagorno-Karabakh and 100,000 displaced compatriots, asks voters to endure present hardship for a European future. Russia, wielding trade bans and cheap gas as instruments of persuasion, is making certain that hardship is felt before ballots are cast. What Armenia decides will say something not only about its own future, but about whether small nations can afford to choose their own orbit.
- Pashinyan's support has nearly halved since 2021, hollowed out by the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and a peace deal many Armenians experience as surrender.
- In the weeks before the vote, Russia banned Armenian exports and dangled subsidized gas — a calculated squeeze designed to make the cost of Western alignment feel immediate and personal.
- The opposition is substantial but splintered, led by Russia-aligned former presidents and a billionaire running his campaign from house arrest through his nephew, leaving roughly 40 percent of voters trusting no one at all.
- The campaign has turned bitter — a prime minister using offensive language against a displaced Karabakh activist, arrests, hunger strikes, and accusations of state pressure on civil servants to fill rally seats.
- Armenia has quietly diversified its military imports away from Moscow, but Russia still commands 36 percent of its foreign trade, meaning economic coercion remains a live weapon even as military leverage fades.
- The European Commission has pledged funds and trade relief, but the gap between those gestures and a tangible European future leaves voters weighing certain pain against an uncertain promise.
Armenia heads to the polls on June 7 with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeking a third term despite approval ratings that have fallen from 54 percent to around 30. The collapse traces directly to Nagorno-Karabakh — a mountainous region home to 100,000 ethnic Armenians until Azerbaijan seized it by force in 2023. Pashinyan made peace with Baku. Many Armenians have not forgiven him.
Yet his westward project has been deliberate and far-reaching. Since 2018 he has initiated EU accession legislation, secured a US-backed peace agreement with Azerbaijan, and welcomed European leaders to Yerevan. Donald Trump has endorsed him. The vision is Armenia as a European nation, free of Moscow's orbit — but most voters are not certain they can afford the transition.
Russia is ensuring they feel the cost. In the two weeks before the election, Moscow banned Armenian flowers, cognac, mineral water, and fresh produce from its markets, while continuing to supply gas at a fraction of European prices. Putin has publicly urged Armenia to hold a referendum on EU versus Eurasian Economic Union membership, and invoked Ukraine as a cautionary tale. Armenian analysts note that Russia's military leverage has largely evaporated — 95 percent of Armenian military imports now come from India, France, China, and others — but economic coercion remains formidable: Russia accounts for 36 percent of Armenia's foreign trade.
The opposition is fractured but real. Former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan lead Russia-aligned alliances arguing that restored ties with Moscow are Armenia's only security. The most prominent challenger, billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, is under house arrest on charges of plotting to overthrow the government, running his campaign through his nephew. Polling puts Pashinyan's Civil Contract party at 32 percent, but roughly 40 percent of voters say they trust no political figure at all. A united opposition could match him; divided, it cannot.
The campaign has grown ugly. Pashinyan clashed publicly with a displaced Karabakh activist, using offensive language; the activist was subsequently arrested and went on hunger strike. Opposition figures accuse the government of pressuring civil servants to attend rallies and spreading fear. One opposition parliamentarian said he cannot recall a campaign this tense.
Pashinyan runs on what he calls 'Real Armenia' — a nation at peace, integrated into Europe, no longer defined by territorial loss or dependence on Moscow. The European Commission has pledged 50 million euros and promised trade relief on goods targeted by Russia. But these gestures do not dissolve the central question facing Armenian voters: whether the promise of a European future is worth the certain pain of the present.
Armenia goes to the polls on June 7, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is asking voters to trust him with a third term—even though his approval has cratered. In 2021, six in ten Armenians backed him. Today, barely three in ten do. The reason sits in the mountains between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that held 100,000 ethnic Armenians until Azerbaijan seized it by force in 2023. Pashinyan made peace with Baku. His country paid the price, and many Armenians have not forgiven him.
Yet Pashinyan's gamble is not reckless. Since 2018, he has pulled Armenia westward with deliberate force—passing legislation to begin the EU accession process, brokering a US-backed peace agreement with Azerbaijan, and hosting European leaders and Ukraine's president in Yerevan. Donald Trump has endorsed him. The vision is clear: Armenia as a European nation, no longer tethered to Moscow. The problem is that most Armenians are not sure they can afford it.
Russia is making certain they feel the cost. In the two weeks before the election, Moscow banned Armenian flowers, mineral water, cognac, fresh vegetables, and fruit from its markets. It supplies gas at $177.50 per thousand cubic metres—a fraction of the European price, which exceeds $600. Vladimir Putin has called on Armenia to hold a referendum on whether to join the EU or remain in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. He has also reminded Pashinyan that the Ukraine crisis began with EU accession efforts. The message is unmistakable: choose Europe, and Moscow will make you pay.
Armenian analysts understand what is happening. Haykaz Fanyan of the Armenian Centre for Socio-Economic Studies notes that Russia's military leverage over Armenia has withered—95 percent of Armenian military imports now come from India, France, China, and others. Economic coercion is all Moscow has left. But it is still formidable. Russia accounts for 36 percent of Armenia's foreign trade. The Kremlin is weaponizing that dependence, and ordinary Armenians heading to vote face a question no geopolitical framing can soften: Can they bear the economic pain of Pashinyan's westward turn, knowing that a European future remains distant and uncertain?
Pashinyan's opposition is fractured but substantial. Two opposition alliances are led by former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, both figures of the pre-2018, Russia-aligned era. They argue that restoring deep ties with Moscow is Armenia's only security. The main challenger is billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who made his fortune in Russia and is now under house arrest on charges of plotting to overthrow the government—a fact that has not stopped him from running his campaign through his nephew. The latest polling shows Pashinyan's Civil Contract party leading with 32 percent, but roughly 40 percent of voters say they trust no political figure at all. If the opposition united, they could match Pashinyan's vote. Divided, they cannot beat him.
The campaign itself has grown tense and, at moments, ugly. Pashinyan clashed with Artur Osipyan, a civil activist and displaced Karabakh Armenian, in an exchange that ended with the prime minister using offensive language. Osipyan was arrested on charges of obstructing the election campaign and went on hunger strike in protest. Opposition figures have accused Pashinyan of authoritarianism—of using state pressure on civil servants to attend his rallies, of spreading fear, of blackmail. Artur Khachatryan, an opposition parliamentarian, said he cannot remember a campaign this tense.
Pashinyan is running on a doctrine he calls "Real Armenia"—a nation at peace with its neighbors, integrated into Europe, no longer defined by territorial ambitions or dependence on Moscow. His support has collapsed, but for many voters he remains the only alternative to a return to the past, a past stained by corruption and authoritarianism. The European Commission has pledged 50 million euros to Armenia and promised to ease trade restrictions on goods targeted by Moscow. But these gestures, however welcome, do not change the fundamental calculation facing Armenian voters: whether the promise of a European future is worth the certain pain of the present.
Citas Notables
The only way Russia can impact Armenia now is economic— Haykaz Fanyan, Armenian Centre for Socio-Economic Studies
We will continue to work within the EAEU until the choice between its current membership and the EU becomes unavoidable. Today this choice is theoretical in nature.— Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, on Putin's call for an EU referendum
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why has Pashinyan's support fallen so dramatically if he's accomplished so much—the EU process, the peace deal, Trump's endorsement?
Because he lost a war. Nagorno-Karabakh was Armenian territory, home to 100,000 people. Azerbaijan took it in 2023. Pashinyan made peace with Baku, which meant accepting that loss. For many Armenians, that's not a diplomatic victory—it's a betrayal.
But the opposition wants to restore ties with Russia. How does that solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem?
It doesn't. But it offers something else: the comfort of the familiar, the sense that Armenia is not alone, that Moscow has Armenia's back. It's a return to the old order, before Pashinyan. Whether it would actually work is a different question.
Russia is banning flowers and vegetables. That seems almost petty compared to military power.
It's not petty at all. Russia supplies Armenia's gas at a fraction of European prices. It's Armenia's largest trading partner. When Moscow bans exports and raises energy costs, ordinary people feel it immediately. That's the weapon Putin has left, and it's surprisingly sharp.
So Pashinyan is asking Armenians to suffer now for a European future that might never come?
Exactly. The EU hasn't even offered Armenia candidate status yet. Membership is years away, maybe decades. Meanwhile, gas prices could spike, jobs could disappear. Pashinyan is asking people to trust a vision, not a guarantee.
Why is the opposition so divided if they all want to move away from Pashinyan?
Because they represent different factions of the old regime. Kocharyan and Sargsyan each have their own base, their own grievances. They can't agree on who should lead, so they run separately. That splits the anti-Pashinyan vote and probably hands him the election.
What happens if Pashinyan wins?
He continues the westward pivot, absorbs more Russian economic pressure, and hopes that Europe eventually makes good on its promises. If he loses, Armenia likely swings back toward Moscow and the old order. Either way, the country is caught between two worlds.