Only 47 percent of Republicans approve of how Trump handles the cost of living
Quatro meses após sua posse, Donald Trump enfrenta uma erosão de apoio que vai além das fronteiras partidárias habituais: sua aprovação caiu a 35%, e o que torna esse número revelador é que a dissidência cresce dentro do próprio Partido Republicano. O aumento de 50% nos preços da gasolina, provocado por um conflito com o Irã que paralisou o comércio global de petróleo, transformou uma questão geopolítica em sofrimento doméstico — e os eleitores estão respondendo com ceticismo crescente. A história sugere que quando um presidente perde a confiança de seu próprio partido sobre o custo de vida, as consequências raramente ficam contidas nas pesquisas.
- A aprovação de Trump entre republicanos despencou de 91% na posse para 79%, enquanto a desaprovação dentro do partido saltou de 5% para 21% em apenas quatro meses.
- O preço da gasolina subiu cerca de 50% para os americanos após o conflito com o Irã bloquear o Estreito de Ormuz, responsável por um quinto do comércio global de petróleo antes da guerra.
- Apenas 47% dos republicanos aprovam a gestão econômica de Trump, e entre todos os americanos, somente um em cada cinco considera satisfatório seu desempenho no custo de vida.
- A imigração permanece como âncora política — 82% dos republicanos ainda aprovam essa agenda —, mas o apoio compartimentado não impede a percepção de fragilidade crescente.
- Com as eleições de meio de mandato marcadas para novembro, aliados republicanos no Congresso observam os números com ansiedade, temendo que a dissidência interna se converta em perdas de cadeiras legislativas.
A aprovação de Donald Trump caiu a 35%, apenas um ponto acima do piso histórico de seu segundo mandato, registrado em abril. O dado mais revelador, porém, não é o número em si, mas sua origem: a erosão vem de dentro do Partido Republicano. Na posse, em janeiro de 2025, 91% dos republicanos aprovavam o presidente. Hoje, esse índice é de 79%, e a desaprovação dentro do partido saltou de 5% para 21% — uma fratura significativa para um líder cuja sobrevivência política sempre dependeu da lealdade partidária.
O principal motor do descontentamento é econômico. Um conflito com o Irã paralisou grande parte do comércio mundial de petróleo, elevando os preços da gasolina em cerca de 50% para os consumidores americanos. O impacto se traduz diretamente nas pesquisas: apenas 47% dos republicanos aprovam a gestão de Trump sobre o custo de vida, enquanto 46% avaliam negativamente. Entre todos os americanos, apenas um em cinco aprova seu desempenho econômico.
Há um ponto de resistência na base: a imigração mantém 82% de aprovação entre republicanos, praticamente inalterada desde o ano passado. Isso indica que os apoiadores não abandonaram Trump por completo, mas estão separando suas críticas por tema. Já no front iraniano, apenas 62% dos republicanos aprovam a condução do conflito — número que cai drasticamente entre democratas e independentes.
O calendário político amplifica a pressão. As eleições de meio de mandato estão marcadas para novembro, e os aliados republicanos no Congresso acompanham os números com crescente inquietação. Se a dissidência interna continuar avançando, as maiorias legislativas do partido podem estar em risco. O que acontecer entre agora e novembro dirá se este momento representa uma inflexão real ou apenas uma turbulência passageira.
Donald Trump's approval rating has slipped to 35 percent, a figure that hovers just above the lowest point of his second term—34 percent, recorded in April. The erosion is real and measurable, tracked across a four-day Reuters/Ipsos survey that closed on Monday, May 18th. What makes this number significant is not just its proximity to historic lows, but where the damage is occurring: within his own party.
When Trump took office in January 2025, 91 percent of Republicans approved of his performance. That number has fallen to 79 percent in the latest poll—a 12-point drop in four months. More striking still is the reversal in disapproval: only 5 percent of Republicans disapproved when he was inaugurated. Now, 21 percent do. For a president whose political survival has long depended on party loyalty, this shift signals real fracture.
The culprit, according to the data, is the economy—or more precisely, what Americans are paying at the pump. A conflict with Iran has paralyzed much of the world's oil trade, sending gasoline prices up roughly 50 percent for American drivers. The impact ripples through household budgets and political calculations alike. Among Republicans, only 47 percent now approve of how Trump is handling the cost of living, while 46 percent say he is doing a poor job. Among all Americans, the picture is grimmer: just one in five approves of his economic stewardship.
There is one area where Trump's Republican base remains largely intact. Immigration—a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign and the rallying cry of his "Make America Great Again" movement—still commands 82 percent approval among Republicans, a figure that has barely budged from last year. This suggests his core supporters have not abandoned him wholesale, but rather are compartmentalizing their discontent.
The Iran situation complicates the narrative Trump has tried to construct. He campaigned on ending what he called "endless wars," pointing to the long American military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan as cautionary tales. His administration has framed the conflict with Iran as a success, highlighting strikes that killed the country's leader and senior officials. A fragile ceasefire has held since April, but Iran has largely blocked oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Ormuz—a chokepoint that before the war accounted for roughly one-fifth of global petroleum trade.
Yet only 62 percent of Republicans approve of how Trump is managing the Iran situation, while 28 percent disapprove. Democrats overwhelmingly reject his approach, as do two-thirds of independents. This suggests that even on a signature foreign policy move, Trump cannot claim unified support within his coalition.
The timing matters enormously. Midterm elections are scheduled for November, and Republican allies in Congress are watching these numbers with visible anxiety. The party's congressional majorities will be on the ballot, and if the erosion of Republican support continues, it could translate into seat losses. The survey, conducted online with 1,271 respondents across the country, carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points for the general population and 5 points for Republicans specifically. What happens between now and November will determine whether this moment of weakness becomes a turning point or a temporary dip.
Citas Notables
Trump argued that the conflict with Iran was a success, highlighting strikes that killed the country's leader and senior officials— Trump administration position
Only 62 percent of Republicans approve of how Trump is managing the Iran situation, while 28 percent disapprove— Reuters/Ipsos poll
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a 35 percent approval rating matter if his own party still backs him on immigration?
Because approval is not monolithic. You can support someone's immigration policy and still think they're mishandling your grocery bill. That split is where vulnerability lives.
The gas prices—how much of this is actually Trump's fault versus global forces?
That's the political question, not the economic one. Voters don't parse causation at the pump. They see the price, they see who's in office, and they make a judgment. Trump promised to avoid endless wars. This conflict disrupted oil markets. The connection is there, whether or not it's fair.
If Republicans still approve of his immigration stance, why would they flip seats in November?
Because elections aren't single-issue. A voter might love his border policy but vote him out if they're choosing between groceries and gas. And if 21 percent of Republicans now disapprove outright, some of those will either stay home or cross over. That's how majorities crack.
Is there any sign this is temporary—that approval could rebound?
The ceasefire is holding, which is something. If oil prices fall and inflation eases, the economic grievance softens. But you'd need both things to move quickly. We're five months from midterms. That's not much time to rebuild trust.
What about the 82 percent on immigration—is that his insurance policy?
It's his floor, not his ceiling. It keeps him from total collapse within the party. But it doesn't win elections if the broader coalition fractures. You need Republicans to show up and bring independents. Right now, he's losing both.