The question is no longer whether another heatwave will arrive, but how severe it will be.
Across Europe, summer 2026 is revealing itself as something more than a season — it is a reckoning. The United Kingdom, still cooling from its hottest June day on record, now watches another heatwave gather on the horizon, even as the continent tallies more than 1,300 lives lost to heat since late June. What meteorologists once called extreme is becoming familiar, and the question forecasters now ask is not whether the heat will return, but how hard it will strike when it does.
- A brief reprieve after last week's record 37.7°C in Norfolk is already giving way to a new threat, with mid-30s temperatures forecast to return across England and Wales within days.
- Europe is still counting its dead — over 1,300 heat-related excess deaths since June 21, with roughly 1,000 in France alone, and those figures expected to rise as full data comes in.
- A heat dome that shattered all-time records in the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Denmark has shifted eastward, leaving red extreme heat warnings across Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Serbia, and Croatia.
- The Met Office and BBC Weather both flagged an elevated risk of recurring heat events through July and August, describing the season ahead as one of 'significant bursts' of intense heat.
- Forecasters are running two competing weather models updated twice daily, holding open the uncertainty of severity — but not the certainty of direction: more heat is coming.
Last week, a weather station in Lingwood, Norfolk recorded 37.7 degrees Celsius — the hottest June day in UK history, eclipsing a record that had stood for nearly seventy years. Temperatures fell in the days that followed, and for a moment the worst seemed to have passed. Meteorologists, however, were already watching the next system form.
Another heatwave is now taking shape. High pressure moving in from the southwest is expected to push temperatures back into the mid-30s Celsius across the Midlands, east, and southeast of England by week's end. The Met Office's deputy chief forecaster, Tony Wisson, acknowledged the likelihood of a return to heatwave conditions for some areas, while noting it is unlikely to match last week's extremes in temperature or humidity. July, statistically the hottest month of the British summer, offers little buffer.
The wider European picture carries a heavier weight. A heat dome grinding across the continent for weeks broke all-time temperature records in the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Denmark, and shattered hundreds of local records in France. The World Health Organization has linked more than 1,300 excess deaths to the event since June 21 — approximately 1,000 of them in France — with the true toll expected to rise as national data is compiled.
That heat dome has now shifted east, leaving red extreme heat warnings across Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Serbia, and Croatia, where temperatures remain 8 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages. Gradual relief is coming to those regions, but the danger has not fully passed.
For the UK and western Europe, the pattern is becoming difficult to ignore. The Met Office's summer outlook, released in early June, already flagged an elevated risk of heat events through July and August. The forecasters' models diverge on severity, but agree on direction. Heat is no longer an aberration of the season — it is the season's defining feature.
Last week, the United Kingdom recorded its hottest June day on record. A weather station in Lingwood, Norfolk, logged 37.7 degrees Celsius—just shy of 100 Fahrenheit—shattering the previous June mark of 35.6 degrees set nearly seventy years ago. That record fell on a Friday. By the following week, the immediate crisis had passed. Temperatures dropped. The worst seemed behind. But meteorologists were already watching the sky again, and what they saw suggested the reprieve would be brief.
As July approaches, another heatwave is taking shape. Forecasters now believe temperatures across England and Wales could climb back into the mid-30s Celsius within days. The Met Office, the UK's national weather service, has stopped short of calling it certain—there remains what they describe as "uncertainty about how hot conditions might get." But Tony Wisson, the deputy chief forecaster, acknowledged the direction of travel: "Although a return to heatwave conditions is looking increasingly likely for some areas, the likelihood of such extreme high temperatures or high levels of humidity as last week is currently low." The distinction matters. Another heatwave is coming. It may not be as severe as the one that just ended.
What makes this pattern significant is the timing. July is statistically the hottest month of the British summer. High pressure is moving in from the southwest, a weather system that will push temperatures upward across the Midlands, the east, and the southeast by week's end. Next week, as that system settles, conditions could shift into what meteorologists formally classify as a heatwave across a wider swath of England and Wales. The Met Office and BBC Weather released their summer outlook in early June, and both flagged an elevated risk of heat events through July and August, with what they called "significant bursts" of intense heat expected.
The broader European picture is grimmer. A massive dome of high pressure—meteorologists call it a heat dome—has been grinding across the continent for weeks. Last week it sat over the UK and western Europe, breaking records in multiple countries. The Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Denmark all recorded their hottest days ever. France saw hundreds of local records shattered. The human toll has been staggering. The World Health Organization linked more than 1,300 excess deaths to the heatwave since June 21. Roughly 1,000 of those occurred in France alone. Those figures are provisional; the actual number will likely climb as data from all affected countries is compiled and analyzed.
Now that heat dome has shifted eastward. Red extreme heat warnings remain in place across Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Serbia, and Croatia, where temperatures are expected to stay in the high 30s Celsius. In those regions, conditions are running 8 to 12 degrees above the seasonal average. Some relief is coming—temperatures will gradually drop through the coming week—but the danger is not yet past.
For the UK and western Europe, the immediate extremes of last week will not return this week. But the pattern is clear: heat is the new normal for the season. Forecasters are watching two different weather models, which produce a range of possible outcomes, updated twice daily. This uncertainty is built into every forecast. But the direction is consistent. July and August will be warmer than average. Heat events will recur. The question is no longer whether another heatwave will arrive, but how severe it will be when it does.
Notable Quotes
Although a return to heatwave conditions is looking increasingly likely for some areas, the likelihood of such extreme high temperatures or high levels of humidity as last week is currently low.— Tony Wisson, deputy chief forecaster, Met Office
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the Met Office sound cautious about next week if they're saying a heatwave is "increasingly likely"?
Because they're distinguishing between two different things. A heatwave is a technical definition—a certain number of consecutive days above a threshold temperature. That's likely. But the extreme temperatures and humidity of last week—37.7 degrees, the record-breaker—that's less likely to repeat immediately. They're being precise about what might happen versus what probably won't.
Over 1,300 deaths in Europe in just over a week. That's a staggering number. Are people prepared for another round?
The deaths are real, but they're also provisional. France alone saw around 1,000, and those figures will rise as other countries report. The question of preparedness is harder. Some people will remember last week and take precautions. But heat kills quietly—dehydration, heat stroke, strain on the heart. Vulnerable populations, the elderly, the isolated, are at highest risk. One heatwave doesn't necessarily mean the next one will be met with better preparation.
The heat dome shifted east. Does that mean western Europe gets a break?
A relative one. The UK and western Europe won't see the extremes of last week this week. But they're still expecting above-average temperatures. And the summer outlook says significant heat bursts are coming through July and August. This isn't a break from heat. It's a shift in where the worst of it is happening right now.
What's the difference between what the Met Office is saying and what the summer outlook predicted back in June?
The June outlook flagged an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts across the summer. Now, in late June, after one record-breaking heatwave, forecasters are seeing that prediction materialize faster and more intensely than typical. The pattern is confirming itself. July is already shaping up to be hot, and we're not even there yet.