Plenty of people cannot get their hands on Nvidia chips
In the accelerating race to power the world's artificial intelligence ambitions, Advanced Micro Devices has stepped forward with a direct challenge to Nvidia's dominance, staking its near-term future on the MI300 chip arriving in the final months of 2023. Where scarcity has left many enterprises without access to the processing power they urgently need, AMD sees not merely a business opportunity but a moment of consequence — one that rewards those who can deliver when others cannot. The outcome will depend less on ambition than on the quieter discipline of execution.
- Nvidia's H100 chips have become so scarce that enterprises are effectively locked out of the AI infrastructure buildout, creating a vacuum AMD is racing to fill.
- AMD's stock jumped 3.5% after hours as investors responded to CEO Lisa Su's confident projection of a fourth-quarter surge anchored by the MI300 launch.
- Despite a bruising second quarter — data center revenue down 11%, client revenue down 54% — AMD is forecasting double-digit sequential growth across both segments in Q3.
- A China-shaped gap in AMD's product lineup is drawing scrutiny; Su signaled intent to develop compliant chips for Chinese AI customers, a path Nvidia and Intel have already begun navigating.
- Analysts are cautiously optimistic but clear-eyed: the MI300's success hinges entirely on whether AMD can ramp production and ship on schedule — a promise the company must now keep.
Advanced Micro Devices is betting its near-term momentum on the fourth quarter arrival of its MI300 artificial-intelligence chips — a direct answer to Nvidia's H100 accelerators, which have grown nearly impossible to obtain. CEO Lisa Su told investors that customer appetite is exceptionally high, and that AMD spent the third quarter deepening partnerships with major cloud providers, large enterprises, and AI companies starved for processing power. AMD's stock rose 3.5% after hours on the news.
The timing is deliberate. As Microsoft and Google signal sharp increases in data center spending, and as Nvidia's supply constraints leave buyers with few alternatives, AMD sees a rare opening. Its older MI250 chip is already selling for less demanding workloads, and the company expects data center revenue in 2023 to surpass last year's $6.04 billion total.
The financial backdrop is mixed. AMD's data center business fell 11% year-over-year in Q2, and its client segment dropped 54%. Yet the company projects double-digit sequential growth in Q3 and forecast roughly $5.7 billion in current-quarter revenue — slightly below analyst expectations but directionally confident.
A second front is opening in China. AMD's flagship chips exceed U.S. export thresholds, and unlike Nvidia and Intel, the company has not yet built a compliant product line for Chinese AI customers. Su acknowledged the gap and signaled AMD intends to close it within the bounds of U.S. export controls.
Analysts frame the MI300 launch as AMD's clearest path to meaningful market share gains — but only if execution matches ambition. As one portfolio manager put it, plenty of buyers simply cannot access Nvidia chips, and AMD has the chance to fill that gap. The market, for now, is watching and waiting.
Advanced Micro Devices is banking on a fourth quarter surge. On Tuesday, the company projected strong revenue growth anchored by the arrival of its MI300 artificial-intelligence chips—a direct answer to Nvidia's H100 accelerators, which have become nearly impossible to obtain. AMD's stock rose 3.5% after hours on the news.
The MI300 represents AMD's most serious bid yet to crack the booming market for AI infrastructure. CEO Lisa Su told investors the company would begin ramping production of the chips in the final quarter of the year. Customer appetite, she said, is exceptionally high. During the third quarter alone, AMD expanded partnerships with major cloud providers, large enterprises, and leading AI companies hungry for the processing power these accelerators provide. The timing matters: Nvidia's H100 chips remain in such short supply that many potential buyers cannot secure them at any price. If AMD can execute the production ramp and deliver MI300s when promised, the company stands to capture customers who have no other options.
The broader context makes this moment significant. The market for advanced AI chips is surging as companies race to build out data centers and deploy large language models. Microsoft and Google have signaled they will sharply increase spending on data center infrastructure in the second half of 2023, with much of that capital flowing toward AI chips and related systems. AMD's older MI250 accelerator is already finding buyers for less demanding AI workloads, and Su indicated the company sees continued demand for that product line as well.
AMD's own financial picture has been uneven. In the second quarter, the company's data center business—which will house MI300 sales—generated $1.32 billion in revenue, down 11% from the prior year. The client business, which serves personal computers, fell 54% to $998 million. But the company expects both segments to grow by double digits sequentially in the third quarter, driven by rising demand for its EPYC server processors and Ryzen chips for consumer machines. For the current quarter, AMD forecast revenue of approximately $5.7 billion, with a margin of plus or minus $300 million—slightly below the $5.82 billion analysts had predicted.
A second opportunity is taking shape in China. AMD's flagship chips exceed the performance thresholds the U.S. government restricts from export to China under rules imposed last year. Unlike Nvidia and Intel, AMD has not yet developed a separate product line for the Chinese market. On the investor call, Su acknowledged this gap and signaled the company's intent to fill it. "Our plan is to, of course, be fully compliant with U.S. export controls," she said. "But we do believe there's an opportunity to develop product(s) for our customer set in China that is looking for AI solutions, and we'll continue to work in that direction." The company has not committed to a detailed full-year forecast but said it expects data center revenue in 2023 to exceed 2022's total of $6.04 billion.
Analysts see the MI300 launch as AMD's clearest path to meaningful market share gains. Jenny Hardy, a portfolio manager at GP Bullhound, which holds both Nvidia and AMD stock, framed it plainly: if AMD can ramp production and ship MI300 chips on schedule, strong demand is nearly assured. "Plenty of people cannot get their hands on Nvidia chips," Hardy said. "So we would assume that AMD can effectively kind of fill some of that supply-demand gap." The question now is execution. AMD has promised much before. This time, the market is waiting.
Citas Notables
Our plan is to be fully compliant with U.S. export controls. But we do believe there's an opportunity to develop product(s) for our customer set in China that is looking for AI solutions.— AMD CEO Lisa Su
If AMD can ramp production and launch those MI300 chips in the fourth quarter, they will likely see strong demand because plenty of people cannot get their hands on Nvidia chips.— Jenny Hardy, portfolio manager at GP Bullhound
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the timing of this chip launch matter so much right now?
Because Nvidia's H100 chips are impossible to get. Companies building AI systems need accelerators, and they can't wait. If AMD can actually deliver MI300s in volume when they say they will, they're not competing on merit alone—they're the only option available.
What's the China angle about? Why is that significant?
The U.S. restricted exports of the most powerful chips to China last year. AMD's best chips hit that ceiling, so they're locked out of that market. Nvidia and Intel already have compliant alternatives they sell there. If AMD can design something that meets export rules but still serves Chinese AI companies, that's a whole new revenue stream—and it signals AMD is thinking long-term about geopolitics, not just quarterly earnings.
Is AMD actually in a position to win here, or is this wishful thinking?
They have a real shot, but it's narrow. The supply shortage is real and deep. But AMD has to execute flawlessly on production. If they stumble on the ramp, the moment closes. Nvidia will catch up on supply, and the advantage evaporates.
What does the rest of AMD's business look like right now?
Uneven. Data centers are down year-over-year. Consumer PC chips are down sharply. But the company is seeing sequential growth coming, and they're betting that cloud providers' AI spending will carry them through. It's a bet on one thing—AI infrastructure—to fix everything else.
So this is make-or-break for AMD?
Not quite. But it's the clearest path they have to relevance in the market that matters most right now. Miss this, and they're back to being a secondary player.