Shippers are betting rates will fall, so they're paying month-to-month premiums rather than committing to expensive multi-year deals.
In May, the global air cargo market reached a kind of fever pitch — spot rates climbing 41 percent in a single year, planes packed fuller than usual, and shippers navigating a world where geopolitical friction had quietly become a line item on every invoice. The tension was not born of chaos alone, but of a persistent mismatch between human urgency and physical capacity, sharpened by conflict in the Middle East and the unraveling of trade certainties that once felt permanent. Early signs suggest the pressure may be easing, yet the forces reshaping commerce — new tariffs, shifting alliances, the relentless appetite for digital infrastructure — ensure that even a calmer market will not be a simple one.
- Air cargo spot rates hit $3.40 per kilogram in May, a 41% annual surge driven by demand outrunning airline capacity amid Middle Eastern disruptions.
- Dynamic load factors climbed to 61%, meaning planes were being filled to near-maximum as shippers scrambled for every available kilogram of space.
- Rather than committing to costly long-term contracts, shippers are accepting temporary surcharges month by month — a quiet bet that relief is coming soon.
- The Transpacific corridor remains the year's hottest route, fueled by insatiable demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure, while Europe-to-North America weakens under a summer passenger-flight glut.
- Chinese e-commerce exports have fallen for five straight months, and new EU and US tariff measures threaten to further deflate the low-cost air freight volumes that platforms like Shein and Temu depend on.
- Analysts expect rate pressures to moderate in the second half of 2026, but warn that the year's most dynamic window has likely already closed.
By May, global air cargo spot rates had reached $3.40 per kilogram — 41 percent above the same month a year earlier. The surge traced a familiar logic: shippers needed capacity more urgently than airlines could provide it, a gap sharpened by the ongoing Middle East conflict and its ripple effects across logistics networks. Though global air freight demand grew just 4 percent year-over-year, supply lagged further behind, and the dynamic load factor climbed to 61 percent, signaling planes were being packed unusually full.
Yet early signs pointed toward relief. Long-term contract rates, after peaking in late April, had begun to retreat. Shippers, sensing the worst had passed, were opting for temporary surcharges and month-by-month extensions rather than locking into expensive multi-year deals. As Middle Eastern airlines gradually restored normal operations and summer passenger flights added cargo capacity, analysts expected rate pressures to ease.
The market remained deeply uneven by route. The Transpacific corridor stayed the year's most active, driven by demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Middle Eastern routes held stubbornly high. Some lanes from Europe to South and Southeast Asia had surged over 113 percent since late February, while the Europe-to-North America corridor weakened under a glut of summer passenger capacity.
Deeper commercial currents added further uncertainty. Chinese exports of low-value goods had fallen for five consecutive months, with shipments to the US down 33 percent. Starting July 1, the EU would eliminate tariff exemptions for small packages from non-EU countries, directly pressuring platforms like Shein and Temu. New US tariff proposals on goods from 60 trading partners added another layer of complexity to shipper planning.
Xeneta's outlook for the second half of 2026 was measured: moderating rates, regulatory headwinds, and trade policy uncertainty suggested a market settling into a slower rhythm — a relief for shippers, but also a signal that the year's most turbulent chapter had likely already passed.
By May, the global air cargo market had pushed spot rates to $3.40 per kilogram—a jump of 41 percent from the same month a year earlier. The surge reflected a familiar imbalance: shippers needed capacity more urgently than airlines could supply it, a tension sharpened by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its ripple effects across international logistics networks.
Demand itself grew modestly. Global appetite for air freight rose just 4 percent compared to May 2025, according to Xeneta, the freight rate analytics firm. But supply lagged further behind. Airline capacity did recover somewhat, finishing the month 1 percent above prior-year levels, yet the gap between what shippers wanted to move and what carriers could carry remained wide enough to sustain elevated pricing. The dynamic load factor—a measure of how intensely airlines were using available seats—climbed two percentage points to 61 percent, signaling that planes were being packed fuller than usual.
Yet there were early signs the fever might break. Long-term contract rates, which typically move more slowly than spot prices, had climbed 22 percent year-over-year but began retreating after hitting their peak in late April. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's chief airfreight officer, observed that shippers seemed to sense the worst had passed. Rather than locking into expensive multi-year deals, they were accepting temporary surcharges and extending existing contracts month by month—a hedging strategy that suggested confidence in moderation ahead. As Middle Eastern airlines gradually restored normal operations, and as the Northern Hemisphere summer season brought a seasonal boost in passenger flights (and thus cargo capacity), the pressure on rates was expected to ease.
But the market remained fractured by geography and cargo type. The Transpacific route—connecting Asia to North America—remained the year's most dynamic corridor, driven by relentless demand for semiconductors, data center equipment, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Routes serving the Middle East held stubbornly high rates, a direct consequence of geopolitical tensions that showed no sign of dissolving. From Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, some spot rates had surged as much as 113 percent since late February. The Europe-to-North America corridor, by contrast, showed weakness. Despite improved demand on the Transatlantic route in May, the glut of summer passenger-flight capacity continued to weigh on pricing.
Underlying these rate movements were deeper currents of commercial uncertainty. Chinese exports of low-value goods and e-commerce products had contracted 11 percent year-over-year in April, marking five consecutive months of decline. Shipments to the United States fell even more sharply, dropping 33 percent. Starting July 1, the European Union would eliminate tariff exemptions for packages under $173, instead imposing a fixed $3.45 charge per item from non-EU countries—a policy change that would directly squeeze platforms like Shein, Temu, and AliExpress, which rely heavily on low-cost air freight to remain competitive. Meanwhile, the U.S. Trade Representative's office had proposed new tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent on goods from 60 trading partners, including the European Union and China, adding another layer of uncertainty to shipper planning.
Against this backdrop, Xeneta's forecast for the second half of 2026 was subdued. Van de Wouw cautioned that shippers should not expect a particularly robust summer for air cargo demand. The combination of moderating rates, regulatory headwinds, and trade policy flux suggested a market settling into a slower rhythm—relief for shippers tired of paying premium prices, but also a signal that the year's most dynamic period had likely already passed.
Citações Notáveis
Shippers are accepting temporary surcharges and extending existing contracts rather than committing to long-term agreements, suggesting they believe the peak in rates has already passed.— Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer, Xeneta
Do not expect a particularly robust summer for air cargo demand.— Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did rates climb so steeply in May when demand only grew 4 percent?
Because capacity didn't keep pace. Airlines had 1 percent more seats than last year, but shippers needed far more than that marginal increase. When supply lags demand, even modest growth in demand can drive sharp price moves.
The article mentions shippers accepting temporary surcharges instead of long-term contracts. What does that tell us?
It's a signal of confidence. If you thought prices would stay high, you'd lock in a contract. But shippers are betting rates will fall, so they're paying month-to-month premiums rather than committing to expensive multi-year deals.
The Transpacific route is booming while Europe-to-North America is weak. Why the split?
Different cargo, different capacity dynamics. Transpacific is moving semiconductors and AI infrastructure—high-value, urgent goods. North America-Europe has abundant summer passenger capacity flooding the market, so rates there face downward pressure.
How much does the EU tariff change actually matter to air cargo rates?
It matters significantly for e-commerce shippers. Platforms like Shein and Temu rely on cheap air freight to stay profitable. When tariffs rise and exemptions disappear, the economics of shipping low-value items by air deteriorate. That could reduce overall demand for air cargo.
Is the second-half slowdown a problem or a relief?
Both. For shippers who've been bleeding money on high rates, it's relief. For airlines and freight forwarders, it means tighter margins. The market is normalizing, but that normalization comes with trade-offs.