Even the most bullish players were beginning to wonder if the party might be getting out of hand.
In the autumn of 2025, SoftBank reported a doubling of quarterly profits to 2.5 trillion yen, a figure conjured almost entirely from the rising valuations of artificial intelligence companies — a reminder that in moments of collective technological faith, paper wealth can accumulate faster than wisdom. Yet the company's quiet sale of $5.8 billion in Nvidia shares, offered without explanation, speaks the language that markets understand better than any earnings call: even the truest believers sometimes hedge their bets. The story of SoftBank this quarter is, in miniature, the story of an era — one in which the promise of machine intelligence has become both the engine of extraordinary fortune and the source of a deepening unease about what comes next.
- SoftBank's net profit more than doubled to 2.5 trillion yen in a single quarter, almost entirely on the back of soaring AI stock valuations — a gain as dazzling as it is fragile.
- The company's silent offloading of $5.8 billion in Nvidia shares after the quarter closed sent an unspoken signal: the most aggressive players in the AI boom are quietly preparing for a possible reckoning.
- Nasdaq has surged 25 percent since May, Nvidia briefly touched a $5 trillion valuation, and SoftBank's own stock has climbed over 140 percent in 2025 — numbers that increasingly echo the fever charts of the dot-com era.
- Masayoshi Son continues to press forward with audacious bets — the $500 billion Stargate project, a $5.4 billion robotics acquisition — even as analysts flag OpenAI's unresolved nonprofit-to-profit transition and its near-absence from enterprise markets.
- A market sell-off triggered by AI overvaluation fears last week left investors asking the question that defines this moment: was that a correction, or the first tremor of something far larger?
SoftBank Group's November earnings report delivered a number that would have seemed implausible not long ago: net profit of 2.5 trillion yen for a single quarter, more than double what the company earned in the same period a year prior. The source of that wealth was not a product, a service, or a breakthrough — it was the collective belief of markets in the transformative power of artificial intelligence, and particularly in OpenAI, in which SoftBank holds a major stake.
Yet even as the company celebrated, it was quietly retreating from one of the sector's most celebrated names. After the quarter closed, SoftBank sold $5.8 billion worth of Nvidia shares — the chips that power the AI revolution — without offering any public explanation. The silence was its own kind of statement. When the most committed bulls begin to take chips off the table, the question of whether this boom has become a bubble grows harder to dismiss.
The backdrop makes that question urgent. Nvidia briefly became the first company in history to reach a $5 trillion valuation. The Nasdaq has climbed 25 percent since May. OpenAI has signed roughly $1 trillion in infrastructure deals in a single year. SoftBank's own stock has risen more than 140 percent in 2025. These are not the numbers of a maturing industry — they are the numbers of a market in the grip of a singular conviction.
Masayoshi Son, the 68-year-old founder who has staked his legacy on this moment, shows no sign of slowing. He stood beside President Trump in January to announce the $500 billion Stargate infrastructure project, and has since moved to acquire a Swiss-Swedish robotics firm for $5.4 billion, extending his vision of AI from the digital into the physical world.
Analysts at Jefferies have urged caution. OpenAI, they note, commands consumer attention but has almost no foothold in enterprise markets. Its structural transformation from nonprofit to for-profit entity remains unfinished. Its relationship with Microsoft, a partner of enormous financial consequence, continues to shift in ways that are not yet legible. And the competitive field — Google, Anthropic, and others — is crowded and well-funded.
SoftBank's earnings have always been volatile, swinging with the fortunes of the tech startups and semiconductor firms it backs. But this quarter's results reflect something beyond the company's own story — a market that has grown intoxicated by AI's promise, and that last week showed the first signs of a hangover. Whether that sell-off was a healthy correction or an early warning remains the defining question of this peculiar, exhilarating, and precarious moment.
SoftBank Group's earnings report, released on a Tuesday in November, told a story of spectacular gains built on a foundation that may not hold. The Japanese tech investment giant reported net profit of 2.5 trillion yen—roughly $16.2 billion—for the three months ending in September, more than doubling the 1.2 trillion yen it earned in the same quarter a year earlier. The surge was almost entirely attributable to one thing: the explosive rise in stock prices of artificial intelligence companies, particularly OpenAI, in which SoftBank holds a major stake.
But even as the company announced these blockbuster numbers, it was quietly stepping back from one of the biggest bets in the sector. In October, after the quarter had closed, SoftBank sold $5.8 billion worth of shares in Nvidia, the chip manufacturer whose processors power the AI systems that have captivated Wall Street. The sale was notable not for what the company said about it—it offered no public explanation—but for what it suggested: that even the most bullish players in the AI boom were beginning to wonder whether the party might be getting out of hand.
The numbers tell why. The Nasdaq, heavy with technology stocks, has climbed 25 percent since May. Nvidia itself briefly became the world's first company to reach a $5 trillion valuation, though it has since retreated to around $4.8 trillion. Across the sector, a wave of optimism about artificial intelligence has unleashed a torrent of investment—OpenAI alone has signed roughly $1 trillion in infrastructure deals this year, including a $300 billion agreement with Oracle. SoftBank's own stock has soared more than 140 percent in 2025, riding the wave of enthusiasm.
Masayoshi Son, SoftBank's 68-year-old founder, has been the most visible cheerleader for this moment. He believes artificial superintelligence is imminent and will usher in a technological revolution that will transform medicine and spawn entirely new categories of invention. In January, he appeared at the White House alongside President Donald Trump to announce the Stargate project, a $500 billion infrastructure initiative led jointly by SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle. More recently, the company announced plans to acquire ABB Robotics, a Swiss-Swedish firm, for nearly $5.4 billion as part of what it calls its push into physical AI.
Yet beneath the exuberance, cracks are visible. Analysts at Jefferies, in a research note published last month, acknowledged that SoftBank stock has had a strong run, driven by excitement around its OpenAI exposure. But they also flagged several reasons for concern. OpenAI, they noted, has strong consumer visibility but almost no presence in the enterprise market. The company's transition from nonprofit to for-profit structure remains unresolved. Its relationship with Microsoft, which has poured tens of billions into the partnership, continues to evolve in ways that are not yet clear. And the competitive landscape is crowded—Google, Anthropic, and other well-funded players are all racing to build their own AI capabilities.
SoftBank's earnings volatility is legendary. Because the company invests heavily in tech startups and semiconductor firms, whose stock prices swing wildly, its quarterly results can move dramatically from one period to the next. This quarter's doubling of profit reflects that reality. But it also reflects something larger: a market that has become intoxicated by the promise of AI, sending valuations to levels that have begun to trigger the same kind of warnings that preceded the dot-com crash at the turn of the millennium. Last week, fears that AI stocks had become overvalued sparked a market sell-off. The question now is whether that was a correction or a warning of something larger to come.
Citas Notables
While OpenAI has strong consumer visibility, its share in the enterprise market is tiny. Its transition from non-profit to for-profit remains unresolved, and its relationship with Microsoft is still evolving.— Jefferies equity research
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
So SoftBank's profits doubled. That sounds like a straightforward success story. Why does it feel more complicated than that?
Because the profit didn't come from SoftBank doing anything—it came from the market deciding AI stocks are worth vastly more than they were a year ago. That's a gain on paper, not from operations. And the moment the market changes its mind, those gains evaporate.
Then why sell the Nvidia shares? If you believe in AI, wouldn't you hold?
That's the question everyone's asking. The company won't say, but selling $5.8 billion suggests Son and his team are at least hedging their bets. Maybe they think Nvidia is overvalued. Maybe they need cash for other moves. Or maybe they're just being prudent—taking chips off the table before the music stops.
Masayoshi Son seems like a true believer though. The White House appearance, the Stargate project, the robotics acquisition.
He is a believer. But even believers can be nervous. Son has lived through bubbles before. He knows what happens when everyone agrees on the same story and the story turns out to be wrong. You can believe in AI's potential and still worry that the market has gotten ahead of reality.
What's the actual risk here?
OpenAI has almost no enterprise customers despite being the most famous AI company in the world. Its business model is still being figured out. Microsoft is its biggest backer, which creates dependency. And there are dozens of competitors with deep pockets. If the market suddenly decides OpenAI isn't worth what everyone thinks it is, SoftBank's entire quarter evaporates.
So this earnings report is less about SoftBank's strength and more about market sentiment?
Exactly. It's a snapshot of a moment when everyone is excited about AI. The question is whether that excitement is justified or whether we're watching the early stages of another bubble.