The bank kept pushing credit into weakened segments
Na manhã de quinta-feira, o Banco do Brasil confrontou publicamente o custo de uma estratégia de crédito que o mercado já suspeitava ser frágil: o lucro do terceiro trimestre despencou 60% em relação ao ano anterior, e as ações caíram 5% enquanto investidores tentavam reconciliar os números com a narrativa de um banco ainda em expansão. O retorno sobre o patrimônio, que um ano atrás era de 21%, chegou a apenas 8,4% — um colapso que levanta questões mais profundas sobre a relação entre crescimento e prudência em tempos de estresse econômico. A inadimplência, que avançou de 4,13% para 6,75% do portfólio em pouco mais de um ano, sugere que o banco não apenas enfrentou ventos contrários, mas pode ter navegado ativamente em direção a eles.
- O lucro ajustado de R$ 3,7 bilhões no terceiro trimestre representou uma queda de 60% em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior, chocando o mercado mesmo após sinais de alerta na véspera.
- As ações abriram em leilão a R$ 21,71 e acumularam queda de quase 8% em dois dias, refletindo a perda de confiança dos investidores na trajetória do banco.
- A inadimplência disparou para 6,75% do portfólio — ante 4,13% em março de 2024 —, com a deterioração acelerando em segmentos corporativos e de famílias já sobreendividados.
- Analistas apontam uma contradição central: enquanto os indicadores de qualidade de crédito pioravam, o banco expandiu sua carteira 10,4% em doze meses, concentrando o crescimento exatamente nos segmentos mais vulneráveis.
- O mercado agora questiona se a estratégia reflete uma aposta na recuperação econômica ou uma corrida por volume que ignora os sinais de ruptura visíveis nos próprios balanços do banco.
As ações do Banco do Brasil caíram 5% na manhã de quinta-feira após a divulgação do resultado do terceiro trimestre, que revelou um lucro líquido ajustado de R$ 3,7 bilhões — 60% abaixo do registrado no mesmo período do ano anterior. Os papéis já haviam recuado 2,85% na véspera, quando o analista Felipe Sant'Anna, da Axia Investing, antecipou a fraqueza dos números. Ainda assim, a magnitude da deterioração surpreendeu.
O retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido, principal termômetro da eficiência bancária, despencou de 21% em 2024 para 8,4% no terceiro trimestre de 2025 — um patamar que teria sido considerado inaceitável para um grande banco brasileiro apenas alguns meses atrás. O indicador havia se estabilizado nesse nível no trimestre anterior, sugerindo que a queda havia estancado, mas em um piso historicamente baixo.
A análise de Sant'Anna identificou o núcleo do problema: o banco expandiu sua carteira de crédito 10,4% nos últimos doze meses, mas o crescimento foi direcionado para os segmentos mais expostos ao estresse econômico — empresas já endividadas e famílias sob pressão financeira. Um terço de todo o portfólio está atrelado ao agronegócio, que cresceu apenas 3,2% no período, representando uma concentração significativa em um setor de risco elevado.
Os dados de inadimplência aprofundaram a preocupação. Clientes com mais de trinta dias de atraso representavam 4,13% da carteira em março de 2024; no terceiro trimestre de 2025, esse índice havia subido para 6,75%, com trajetória ascendente e ritmo de deterioração crescente. O banco expandia crédito para tomadores fragilizados enquanto uma parcela crescente de sua carteira existente escorregava para a inadimplência.
A pergunta que o mercado deixou em aberto é a mais difícil de responder: o banco está apostando em uma recuperação econômica que ainda não se materializou, ou sua gestão está priorizando metas de volume enquanto os alicerces do portfólio se deterioram silenciosamente?
Banco do Brasil's stock tumbled 5% on Thursday morning as the market absorbed the weight of the bank's third-quarter earnings report. The adjusted net profit came in at 3.7 billion reais—a staggering 60% decline from the same quarter a year earlier. Shares opened at 21.71 reais, immediately sliding into auction as investors processed the news.
The damage was not a surprise to everyone watching. Felipe Sant'Anna, an analyst at Axia Investing, had already flagged the weakness the day before, when the stock fell 2.85% in anticipation. But knowing bad news was coming and seeing the actual numbers are different things. The earnings revealed a bank in visible distress across multiple dimensions.
Return on equity—the measure of how efficiently a bank deploys shareholder capital—had collapsed from 21% in 2024 to just 8.4% by the third quarter of 2025. That same metric had held at 8.4% the previous quarter, suggesting the deterioration had plateaued, but at a level that would have been unthinkable for a major Brazilian bank only months earlier. Alongside this, the bank's credit portfolio and default rates demanded attention.
Sant'Anna's analysis cut to the heart of the problem: Banco do Brasil had expanded its credit book by 10.4% over the preceding twelve months, but the growth was concentrated in precisely the segments most vulnerable to economic stress. Corporate clients were already heavily indebted. Households were straining under debt burdens. Yet the bank kept pushing credit into these weakened segments. One-third of the bank's entire portfolio was tied to agriculture, which had grown only 3.2% in the same period—a modest expansion in an already outsized exposure.
Default rates told an even more alarming story. Customers more than thirty days behind on payments had risen steadily through the year. In March 2024, that figure stood at 4.13% of the portfolio. By the third quarter of 2025, it had climbed to 6.75%. The trajectory was unambiguous: more borrowers were falling behind, and the pace of deterioration was accelerating. The bank was simultaneously expanding credit to struggling borrowers and watching more of its existing portfolio slip into delinquency.
What made this particularly troubling was the apparent disconnect between the bank's strategy and the reality unfolding in its own books. As default rates climbed and profitability collapsed, Banco do Brasil was not pulling back from risky lending—it was leaning in. The question hanging over the market was whether this reflected confidence in an economic recovery that hadn't yet materialized, or a management team racing to hit volume targets while the foundation beneath them cracked.
Notable Quotes
The bank's credit expansion was driven by two segments that are deeply concerning—corporate clients that are already heavily indebted and households struggling with their own debt burdens.— Felipe Sant'Anna, Axia Investing analyst
One-third of the bank's portfolio is tied to agriculture, which grew only 3.2%, while the bank is simultaneously expanding credit in this concentrated segment.— Felipe Sant'Anna, Axia Investing analyst
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did the stock fall 5% when analysts had already flagged weakness the day before?
Because seeing the actual numbers is different from anticipating them. The 60% profit collapse and the 6.75% default rate made the abstract concrete. Markets price in expectations, but earnings reports confirm fears.
The bank expanded credit 10.4% while defaults were rising. That seems backwards.
It does. Sant'Anna's point was that the bank wasn't just maintaining exposure to weak borrowers—it was actively deepening it. Corporate clients were already overleveraged, households were struggling, and the bank kept lending anyway.
Is agriculture the problem, or is the bank's strategy the problem?
Both. Agriculture is one-third of the portfolio but only grew 3.2%. So the bank is doubling down on a segment that isn't expanding. That's not diversification; that's concentration risk.
What does an 8.4% return on equity actually mean for a bank like this?
It means the bank is generating very little profit relative to the capital shareholders have invested. A year ago it was 21%. That's not a dip—that's a collapse in efficiency.
Could the defaults continue rising?
The trajectory suggests yes. The bank is lending to people and companies already under stress, while more existing borrowers fall behind. Until the economy strengthens or the bank tightens lending standards, there's no natural brake on that trend.