Growth is happening, but significant headwinds remain
Numa semana densa de sinais económicos, três momentos concentram a atenção dos mercados globais: as previsões de outono da Comissão Europeia, os resultados trimestrais da Nvidia e as atas da Reserva Federal americana. Cada um destes eventos carrega em si uma pergunta mais profunda — sobre a resiliência das economias, sobre até onde pode ir o entusiasmo em torno da inteligência artificial, e sobre o ritmo com que os bancos centrais ousarão aliviar o peso dos juros. O mundo financeiro observa, à espera de pistas que confirmem ou perturbem as narrativas que têm guiado as decisões de investimento nos últimos meses.
- A Comissão Europeia prepara-se para divulgar previsões que equilibram uma surpresa positiva — a economia da zona euro cresce mais do que o esperado — com alertas sérios sobre vulnerabilidades que não desapareceram.
- O BCE entra em modo de comunicação intensiva, com o vice-presidente e dois membros do conselho executivo a discursar em Frankfurt, na Irlanda e no Parlamento Europeu, sinalizando que decisões importantes se aproximam.
- A Nvidia fecha o ciclo de resultados das 'Magnificent Seven' com expectativas de crescimento de 53% nos lucros por ação, alimentadas pela parceria com a OpenAI e pelo apetite insaciável por chips de inteligência artificial.
- As atas da Fed vão revelar o que os membros do comité pensavam realmente quando Powell travou as expectativas de um corte em dezembro — e os mercados vão ler cada linha à procura de certezas.
- Em Portugal, os dados do Banco de Portugal sobre dívida pública e certificados de aforro chegam num momento em que os fluxos para poupança mostram sinais de abrandamento, enquanto os certificados do Tesouro continuam a perder terreno há mais de três anos.
A semana que se avizinha é um mapa de tensões económicas em vários continentes. Na Europa, a Comissão divulga as suas previsões de outono com uma mensagem ambivalente: a zona euro surpreendeu positivamente em 2025, mas os ventos contrários não desapareceram. Valdis Dombrovskis já avisou que a complacência seria um erro. Em paralelo, o BCE multiplica as aparições públicas — em Frankfurt, na Irlanda e em Bruxelas — numa semana que parece deliberadamente pensada para preparar mercados e legisladores para o que aí vem em matéria de política monetária e euro digital.
Em Portugal, o Instituto Nacional de Estatística e o Banco de Portugal vão publicar dados sobre crédito à habitação, turismo, transportes e dívida pública. Os números de agosto já mostravam um abrandamento nas entradas em certificados de aforro — 325 milhões de euros, menos do que os 404 milhões de julho — enquanto os certificados do Tesouro continuam numa trajetória de queda ininterrupta desde outubro de 2021.
Do outro lado do Atlântico, a Nvidia apresenta resultados que os analistas esperam que confirmem um crescimento de 53% nos lucros por ação face ao mesmo período do ano anterior — o maior entre as grandes tecnológicas. A parceria com a OpenAI, anunciada em setembro, reforçou o otimismo em torno da empresa que se tornou o símbolo mais visível do boom da inteligência artificial.
As atas da reunião de outubro da Reserva Federal chegam num momento de incerteza calibrada: o banco cortou os juros em 25 pontos base, mas Powell foi explícito ao dizer que um novo corte em dezembro está longe de garantido. Os mercados vão dissecar as atas à procura de pistas sobre o pensamento interno do comité. A reabertura do governo federal americano, após 43 dias de paralisação, também permitirá que dados económicos atrasados cheguem finalmente aos decisores.
A semana encerra com os índices de gestores de compras para novembro na zona euro, França, Alemanha e Reino Unido, e com as vendas a retalho britânicas de outubro — termómetros do estado real das economias por baixo das previsões e dos discursos.
The week ahead is dense with economic releases and corporate announcements that will shape how investors and policymakers think about growth, inflation, and the path forward for central banks. Three events stand out as particularly consequential: the European Commission's autumn economic forecast, Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report, and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting.
The Commission's projections arrive with a complicated message. On November 12, the European economy commissioner declared that the eurozone is performing better than expected heading into 2025 and continues to generate growth in gross domestic product. Yet the same official, Valdis Dombrovskis, cautioned that significant headwinds remain and complacency would be dangerous. This tension—between resilience and fragility—will likely dominate how markets interpret the full forecast when it lands. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is staging a week of high-profile appearances. Luis de Guindos, the ECB's vice president, will open the 28th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt. Philip R. Lane, a member of the bank's executive board, will discuss monetary policy at the University of Galway in Ireland. Piero Cipollone, also on the executive board, will testify before the European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee about the digital euro. These speeches and appearances suggest the ECB is in active communication mode, preparing markets and lawmakers for decisions ahead.
Portugal's statistical agency will release several data points this week: mortgage interest rates for October, third-quarter tourism activity, and 2024 transport and communications statistics. The Bank of Portugal will report September payment balances and September public debt figures, including allocations to savings certificates and Treasury certificates. In August, when most Portuguese families were on summer holiday, inflows to savings certificates slowed to 325 million euros from 404 million in July, bringing the total stock to 38.5 billion euros. Treasury certificates, by contrast, continued their long decline—a pattern unbroken since October 2021—losing 158 million euros in August to reach a stock of 8.5 billion euros.
Nvidia's earnings will close out the reporting cycle for the so-called Magnificent Seven technology stocks. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the chipmaker to report earnings per share of 1.24 dollars for the July-to-September period. If that materializes, it would represent a 53 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year—the largest earnings growth among the seven. The company has been the flagship of the artificial intelligence boom, and its recent partnership with OpenAI, announced in September, has only deepened analyst optimism about its growth trajectory.
On the inflation front, Europe will release October price data for the eurozone and the United Kingdom. Spain will report October consumer confidence. Japan will report third-quarter GDP, and Italy will release October inflation figures. The United States will publish weekly jobless claims data.
The Federal Reserve's minutes from its October 28-29 meeting will receive intense scrutiny. At that gathering, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent—the lowest level since December 2022. This was the second rate cut of the year. When the decision was announced, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a December cut was "far from guaranteed," causing markets to dial back expectations. The minutes will offer insight into how the committee was thinking about economic conditions and the case for further reductions. The reopening of the federal government after a 43-day shutdown will also help, as delayed economic data can now flow to policymakers.
Chile held general elections on Sunday with mandatory voting—the first time in more than a decade that voting was compulsory. Voters elected a new president, renewed all seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and filled half the Senate. Markets will be watching the outcome and what it signals for policy direction in the region.
Mota-Engil, a Portuguese construction company, has called a shareholder meeting to discuss, among other items, authorization to increase its bond issuance limit to 750 million euros. In its most recent bond offering, the company placed 95 million euros with roughly 5,000 investors. The week closes with purchasing managers' indices for November across the eurozone, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—key indicators of manufacturing and service-sector momentum. France will report November business confidence, and the UK will release October retail sales. Baker Hughes will publish its weekly count of active oil and gas rigs in the United States, a metric closely watched by energy investors.
Notable Quotes
The eurozone economy is performing better than expected in 2025 and continues to generate growth, but we face considerable headwinds and cannot be complacent.— Valdis Dombrovskis, European economy commissioner
A December rate cut is far from guaranteed.— Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the European Commission's forecast matter if they're just saying the same thing—growth is happening but risks remain?
Because the specific numbers they attach to that message change how central banks and governments calibrate their own decisions. If they're raising growth estimates for 2025, that's a signal that stimulus may not be needed as much as feared. If they're lowering them, the opposite. The exact revisions matter more than the sentiment.
Nvidia's earnings—is this just another tech stock reporting, or is there something structural here?
It's structural. Nvidia's 53 percent earnings growth would be the largest among the Magnificent Seven. That's not just a company doing well; it's evidence that the AI investment cycle is real and accelerating. If they miss, it suggests the boom might be narrower than markets believe. If they beat, it validates the entire narrative.
The Fed minutes seem like old news—Powell already said December was uncertain.
True, but minutes reveal how the committee was actually thinking, not just what the chair said publicly. They might show disagreement, or they might show consensus that inflation is still sticky. That granularity changes how traders position for December.
Why should anyone care about Portuguese savings certificates?
Because it's a window into household behavior. When inflows slow in summer, that's normal. But the consistent decline in Treasury certificates since 2021 tells you Portuguese savers are losing faith in that product. That's a signal about confidence and about where capital is flowing.
The Chilean elections—how does that affect European or American investors?
Directly, maybe not much. But markets are interconnected. A leftward shift in Chile could affect commodity prices and regional stability. A rightward shift might signal something about global political momentum. Investors watch these things for pattern recognition.