Both maintained their dividends despite the selloff.
In the fog of early November 2020 — with elections unresolved, lockdowns returning, and central banks printing money at historic scale — investors faced not a question of whether to act, but how to act wisely. The ancient tension between safety and growth reasserted itself, as it always does in moments of collective uncertainty. Three distinct asset classes emerged as waypoints: gold miners anchored by monetary tailwinds, battered energy infrastructure offering rare yield, and a discounted global asset manager carrying long-term promise. The deeper counsel was timeless — not to rush, but to build slowly, letting the storm itself become the advantage.
- Markets had just turned sharply downward, with European lockdowns, a contested U.S. election, and unprecedented monetary stimulus compressing investor confidence into a single anxious moment.
- Gold miners Barrick, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle were surging their dividends — some nearly tripling payouts year over year — as printed money and pandemic fear drove gold prices steadily higher.
- Energy infrastructure giants TC Energy and Keyera had been punished hard by the pandemic, falling 24% and 44% respectively, yet both held their dividends — a rare signal of institutional confidence amid the wreckage.
- Brookfield Asset Management, down over a third from its highs, sat at a compelling discount for growth investors, with analysts projecting 42% upside as its 2,000-asset global portfolio awaited recovery.
- The recommended posture was not bold conviction but disciplined patience — building positions gradually across defensive, income, and growth categories, using volatility as a tool rather than a threat.
It was early November 2020, and the uncertainty was almost physical. European economies were locking down again, the U.S. election hung unresolved, and central banks were flooding markets with freshly printed money. For investors, the question wasn't whether to act — it was where.
Gold offered the clearest defensive logic. As governments worldwide expanded monetary stimulus to fund pandemic relief, gold prices climbed steadily, and the major miners climbed with them. Barrick Gold, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle had each dramatically increased their quarterly dividends — some nearly tripling year over year — while analysts projected meaningful price upside of 20 to 31 percent over the following twelve months. The trade-off was modest income yields, making gold miners a better fit for growth and protection than for cash flow.
For investors who needed real yield, energy infrastructure told a different story. TC Energy and Keyera had both been severely punished by the pandemic — down 24% and 44% respectively — yet both had maintained their dividends, a quiet signal of underlying confidence. TC Energy offered a 6.2% yield with 35% projected upside; Keyera, riskier in the market's estimation, yielded 10.2% with 44% upside potential. The income was substantial, and any genuine recovery would compound it further.
Brookfield Asset Management represented the growth case. A global alternative asset manager overseeing roughly 2,000 assets across thirty countries — spanning renewables, infrastructure, and real estate — it had been sold off more than a third from its highs. For a company targeting 12 to 15 percent annual total returns, that discount was an opening. Analysts saw 42% upside if execution held.
The overarching counsel was patience. The correction may not have been finished. Building these three positions gradually — defensive gold, high-yield energy, long-term growth — and letting volatility work in your favor rather than against you was the wisest path through the noise.
The markets had just taken a hard turn downward, and the uncertainty was thick enough to feel. It was early November 2020, and investors were staring down a familiar set of anxieties: European economies locking down again, the U.S. presidential election looming, central banks flooding the system with newly printed money to prop up pandemic relief. The question wasn't whether to invest—it was where.
Gold had become the obvious hedge. As governments worldwide cranked up the printing presses to fund COVID-19 relief, the metal's price climbed steadily higher. The uncertainty alone was enough to drive money into gold, but the monetary stimulus made it almost inevitable. Three major miners—Barrick Gold, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle—were positioned to capture that tailwind. Their quarterly dividends had surged dramatically year over year: Barrick and Agnico Eagle had each roughly doubled their payouts, while Newmont had nearly tripled theirs. The math was clean. In the trailing twelve months, Barrick and Newmont were paying out roughly a quarter of their free cash flow as dividends, while Agnico Eagle was more aggressive at 93 percent. Analysts were projecting upside of 31 percent for Barrick, 27 percent for Newmont, and 20 percent for Agnico Eagle over the next year. The catch was modest: the dividend yields themselves—0.6 percent, 2.6 percent, and 1.8 percent respectively—weren't going to move the needle for income-focused investors.
For those hunting real yield, the energy infrastructure sector offered something more compelling. TC Energy and Keyera had both been hammered by the pandemic's impact on their industries. TC Energy, a $49 billion company, had fallen 24 percent year to date. Keyera, worth just over $4 billion, had dropped 44 percent. Yet both had held their ground on dividends—a signal of confidence that mattered. The market was pricing in the risk differently for each. TC Energy offered a 6.2 percent yield; Keyera, significantly riskier in the market's eyes, yielded 10.2 percent. If either company managed a genuine turnaround, the price appreciation could be substantial. Analysts saw 35 percent upside for TC Energy and 44 percent for Keyera over twelve months, sitting on top of those fat dividend checks.
For growth-oriented portfolios, Brookfield Asset Management represented a different kind of opportunity. The company operated as a global alternative asset manager, overseeing roughly 2,000 assets spread across thirty countries. Its portfolio spanned renewable energy, infrastructure, and real estate—sectors where Brookfield could apply operational expertise to unlock value and improve cash generation. The stock had been crushed in the selloff, down more than a third from its highs. That kind of discount on a company targeting 12 to 15 percent annual total returns created an opening. Analysts were calling for 42 percent upside over the next year if the company executed as expected.
The broader lesson was one of patience. The market correction that had just begun might not be finished. Deploying capital all at once into these positions—gold miners for defensive positioning and dividend growth, energy stocks for high current income with turnaround potential, and Brookfield for long-term growth—made sense as a framework. But the smartest move was to build these positions gradually, letting the volatility work in your favor rather than fighting it.
Citações Notáveis
Gold stocks are the place to invest during times of uncertainty and money printing— Investment analysis, November 2020
Both TC Energy and Keyera maintained their dividends despite massive selloffs, indicating management confidence— Market observation, November 2020
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why gold specifically? Isn't that just betting on fear?
It's more than that. Central banks were printing money at unprecedented scale to fund relief. Gold rises when that happens—it's a hedge against currency debasement. The miners were actually profitable and raising dividends, so you weren't just buying fear; you were buying real cash generation.
And the energy stocks—TC Energy and Keyera—those seem risky if the pandemic is still crushing their sector.
They are risky, which is why Keyera yields 10 percent. But both maintained their dividends despite the selloff. That tells you management believes the underlying business will survive. If it does, you're collecting 10 percent a year while waiting for the recovery.
What about Brookfield? That's a 33 percent drop. How do you know it's not a value trap?
You don't, not for certain. But the company operates 2,000 assets across thirty countries in defensive sectors—renewable energy, infrastructure. It's not a cyclical play. The 42 percent analyst target assumes a recovery in asset values and continued operational improvements. It's a bet on the company's ability to execute, not on a sector bounce.
The advice says to build positions gradually. Why not just buy the dip now?
Because the dip might not be finished. You don't know if the market correction has run its course. By averaging in over time, you reduce the risk of buying right before another leg down. It's not about timing perfectly—it's about not being reckless.
So this is really three different bets for three different investor types?
Exactly. Gold miners for defensive positioning and dividend growth. Energy stocks for high income with turnaround upside. Brookfield for long-term capital appreciation. Together, they give you exposure to different return drivers in an uncertain environment.