The Bishop of Rome had returned to the house of the Father.
The 12 frontrunners span ideological divides from conservative orthodoxy to progressive reform, with ages ranging from 60 to 79 years old. Key candidates include Pietro Parolin (Vatican Secretary of State), Matteo Zuppi (progressive favorite), and Robert Sarah (potential first African pope since the 5th century).
- Pope Francis died April 21, 2025, at age 88, the second-oldest pope in 700 years
- 12 cardinal candidates identified by Vatican analyst; none from Brazil or South America
- Conclave requires two-thirds majority vote; cardinals under 80 eligible to participate
- Candidates range from conservative (Robert Sarah, Péter Erdő) to progressive (Matteo Zuppi, Jean-Marc Aveline)
- Francis's last public appearance was Easter Sunday, April 20, from a wheelchair
Following Pope Francis's death on April 21, 2025, a Vatican analyst has identified 12 cardinal candidates to succeed him, with no Brazilian or South American contenders on the list.
Pope Francis died on Monday, April 21, 2025, at the age of 88, ending a papacy marked by efforts to modernize the Catholic Church and bring it closer to the world's poorest and most marginalized. He was the second-oldest pope to lead the Church in seven centuries. The Vatican confirmed his death in a brief statement: the Bishop of Rome had "returned to the house of the Father," having devoted his entire life to serving the Lord and His Church.
Francis had been in declining health for months. In February, he was hospitalized at Rome's Policlinico Agostino Gemelli with what was initially diagnosed as bronchitis but proved to be bilateral pneumonia. Tests revealed he had also developed low platelet counts and anemia, requiring a blood transfusion. The Vatican said at the time that he was "not out of danger." He was discharged in late March and spent his final weeks in recovery. His last public appearance came on Sunday, April 20, when he appeared in a wheelchair on the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica for Easter blessings. Speaking with visible difficulty, he wished the faithful a happy Easter, then handed off his prepared message to a monsignor to read aloud. In that final address, he urged world leaders not to surrender to "the logic of fear" and called for global disarmament, warning that nations' legitimate need for self-defense must not become a race to accumulate weapons.
Now the Church faces the task of choosing his successor. Within days, cardinals under the age of 80 will gather in the Sistine Chapel for a conclave—a ritual dating to the 13th century whose name comes from the Latin "cum clave," meaning "with key." The process is both ancient and precise: cardinals will vote repeatedly until one candidate receives two-thirds of the ballots. The world will know the outcome through colored smoke rising from a chimney above the chapel—black smoke means no decision yet, white smoke announces a new pope. The number of voting cardinals can range up to 120.
Vatican analyst Edward Pentin and a team of Catholic journalists and experts have compiled a list of twelve cardinals considered most likely to become the 267th pope. Notably, there are no Brazilians on the list, and no South Americans at all. Six of the twelve were appointed by Francis himself, five by his predecessor Benedict XVI, and one by John Paul II decades earlier.
The candidates span a wide ideological spectrum. On the conservative end stands Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary, 72, a fierce opponent of communism who grew up under Soviet control and whose family fled in 1956. He opposes optional celibacy for priests, rejects the idea that all people are automatically saved, and is against recognizing same-sex unions, though he says the Church should offer pastoral support to those experiencing same-sex attraction. At the other end sits Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, Italy, 69, known as the "street priest" for his work with the poor and marginalized. Zuppi embraces religious pluralism, advocates for the inclusion of LGBTQ people and divorced Catholics, and leads one of the world's richest dioceses, enriched by a $1.8 billion donation made before his appointment as cardinal.
Other major contenders include Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican's Secretary of State, whose diplomatic skill and pragmatism have made him a natural continuity candidate if the cardinals want to preserve Francis's reform agenda—though critics call him a "modernist progressive" with a "globalist vision" while supporters see him as a "courageous idealist." Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, 79, represents the orthodox wing; he has spoken against abortion, homosexuality, and Islam, and if elected would be the first African pope since the 5th century. Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, 67, called the "Asian Francis," holds progressive views on moral theology while maintaining traditional stances on abortion and eutanasia. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, shares Francis's disdain for clerical arrogance and concern for migrants and interfaith dialogue, though he remains largely quiet on controversial doctrinal questions.
Other candidates include Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of Congo, 65, who has openly criticized his government and faces accusations of sedition; Cardinal Willem Eijk of the Netherlands, 71, a trained physician and theologian who has defended vaccination and traditional marriage; Cardinal Anders Arborelius of Sweden, 75, who supports environmental protection and immigration; Cardinal Charles Bo of Myanmar, 76, who emphasizes mercy and environmental concerns; Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka, 77, a conservative with deep pastoral sensibilities; and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline of France, 66, reportedly Francis's own preferred successor according to French media, who maintains cautious silence on the Church's most divisive questions.
The conclave will determine not only who leads the Church next, but what direction it takes—whether toward continued reform or a return to more traditional moorings. Francis's final words, urging peace and warning against the logic of fear, hang over the choice ahead.
Citações Notáveis
The necessity that each people feels to guarantee its own defense cannot transform into a generalized race to armament.— Pope Francis, in his final Easter message, April 20, 2025
Walking together is the new way of being Church.— Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, on his vision of Church unity
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does it matter that there are no South Americans on this list, given that Francis himself was Argentine?
It signals something about how the cardinals who will vote are thinking. Francis came from the periphery, from Latin America, and brought that perspective to the center. The absence of any South American successor suggests the College of Cardinals may be ready to look elsewhere—perhaps back to Europe, or to Africa, or Asia. It's a different kind of statement than keeping the papacy in the same region.
Looking at these twelve, they seem to split pretty cleanly into progressives and conservatives. Is that how the cardinals will actually vote?
It's more complicated than that. Some of these men—Pizzaballa, Aveline—deliberately avoid taking clear positions on the most divisive questions. They're not evasive out of weakness; they're strategic. And then you have figures like Parolin, who could go either way depending on how you read him. The real question isn't left versus right. It's whether the cardinals want continuity with Francis's reforms, or whether they want someone who can hold the line on traditional doctrine while maybe being quieter about it.
Parolin seems like the obvious choice for continuity. Why wouldn't he just win?
Because he's never been a parish priest. His entire career has been diplomacy and administration. Some cardinals will see that as a strength—he knows how to navigate the Vatican bureaucracy. Others will see it as a liability. He doesn't have the pastoral credibility that someone like Zuppi or Pizzaballa has. And there's a real question about whether the Church wants another pope focused on institutional reform, or whether it wants someone who can reconnect with ordinary Catholics.
What about Robert Sarah? He could be the first African pope in fifteen centuries.
That's historically significant, but it also matters what kind of African pope he would be. Sarah is deeply orthodox, opposed to many of the directions Francis took the Church. If the cardinals elect him, they're not just choosing an African—they're choosing a theological direction. They're saying the era of rapid reform is over.
And if they choose someone like Zuppi or Aveline?
Then they're saying Francis was right, but maybe they want someone who can pursue his vision more quietly, more diplomatically. Zuppi is beloved by the progressive wing of the Church. Aveline is reportedly Francis's own choice. But both of them would face enormous resistance from the conservative cardinals and from traditionalist Catholics worldwide. The conclave will have to find someone who can hold the Church together, not split it further.